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Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ELSA HEADS
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South
Carolina has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the
Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while
the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Myrtle Beach
International Airport, South Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts this morning, and
along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These
winds will spread northward in the warning area over the
northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. Non-tropical gale
warnings are in effect for portions of the U. S. coast north of the
Tropical Storm Warning area, and gale conditions are expected in
this area late Friday and Friday night.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through
Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding.
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.