ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
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Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
Corrected to add hurricane wind radii
...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West
to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed
by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast
to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late
Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United
States through Thursday.
Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible
overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (32 km) from
the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km) from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa,
recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h)
gusting to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was
recently measured on North Captiva Island.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are
possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday
night and early Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.
Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:
Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.
SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.