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Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
 
...ELSA NEAR EASTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 77.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 77.4 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a 
turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, 
Elsa will move near or over eastern Cuba today, and approach central 
Cuba tonight and early Monday.  Elsa is expected to move across 
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on 
Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday.  Elsa is then 
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida 
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba.  However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across
Cuba.  After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is
possible.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of 
Jamaica for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of 
eastern and central Cuba today and tonight.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida 
Keys late Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the 
watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper 
Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
 
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15
inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.
 
Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two.  Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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