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Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021
...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY IN PORTIONS
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 67.8 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday
night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the
southern coast of Hispaniola late today or tonight, and move near
Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is
expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward
the Florida Straits.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today, but slow weakening
is expected to begin tonight or Sunday as Elsa interacts with the
landmasses of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to
impact Puerto Rico in a few hours with rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible today. This
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding,
along with the potential for mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible today and Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.
By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.