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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
800 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021
 
...ELSA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A PORTION OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 54.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical 
Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from 
the Haiti/Dominican Republic border eastward to Punta Palenque. 

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for 
Jamaica.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern 
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque 
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, 
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and
Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 54.7 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.  By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti 
on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night. 
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.
 
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.
 
Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin
 
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