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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
 
...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West.  Elsa is 
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed 
during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Elsa will 
continue to move over North Carolina this afternoon, pass near the 
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the 
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night.  The system 
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  No significant change in strength is expected through 
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 
Friday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, 
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 
km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening.  These winds
will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern
states by Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
 
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening.  The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin
 
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