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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
 
...ELSA BACK OVER WATER BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY 
TORTUGAS ON TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Villa Clara.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near 
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the 
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn 
toward the north on Tuesday night.  A north-northeastward motion is 
expected on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Elsa will move across 
the Florida Straits tonight and pass near the Florida Keys early 
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the 
west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.
 
Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West and an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late Tuesday night.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...
 
Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. 
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across 
the Cayman Islands tonight, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches 
with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is expected. This rain may 
lead to scattered flash flooding.    

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and 
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the 
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up 
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable 
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate 
river flooding. 

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low 
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum 
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in 
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern 
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches 
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated 
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight 
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight.  Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto
 
NNNN