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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
 
...ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 81.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa 
Bay.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been
extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of Craig Key
and Florida Bay has been discontinued.
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River 
including Tampa Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara,
Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 81.9 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward 
the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on 
Tuesday night.  A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin 
on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to
continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours,
move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the
Florida Keys early Tuesday.  Elsa is then forecast to move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some restrengthening is forecast after
Elsa moves over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread 
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical 
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday.  Tropical 
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning 
late Tuesday night.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.  
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.  
Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is 
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.    

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and 
impacts this week:

Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida 
Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 
inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and 
urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river 
flooding. 

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low 
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum 
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in 
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern 
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches 
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated 
flash and urban flooding.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight 
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight.  Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown
 
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