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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING 
SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of Haiti from Port
Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti north of Port Au Prince has
been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida
peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required Sunday
morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was 
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near 
latitude 17.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the 
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). An additional decrease in 
forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn 
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, 
Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the 
next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern 
Cuba on Sunday.  By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central 
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then 
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of 
Florida on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast tonight, 
with some slight strengthening possible Sunday afternoon as Elsa 
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba.  However, gradual 
weakening is forecast to occur Sunday night and Monday when Elsa 
will be moving over Cuba.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 
estimated to be 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. 
Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti 
tonight and on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday. 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the 
Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the 
Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
 
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
 
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.
 
Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin
 
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