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Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021
...ELSA NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE LATER THIS MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 69.0 West. Elsa is moving
very quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and
portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to
move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today,
but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is
expected to be near or over Cuba.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.
Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday,
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding
with mudslides in Cuba.
Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.