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BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY LATE SATURDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical 
Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor
the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 66.3 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward
speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast
of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night.  By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move
near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast 
tonight, with some restrengthening expected on Saturday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa
interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from 
the aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning 
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.  
Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or 
Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
 
Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet
 
RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to 
impact Puerto Rico tonight with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches 
with localized amounts of 5 inches possible through Saturday. This 
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, 
along with the potential for mudslides.
 
Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible Saturday into Sunday.  This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin
 
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