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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021
 
...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southern and western
coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic
to Le Mole le St. Nicholas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern
Cuba, and Jamaica should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional 
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and 
Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 53.8 West.  Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. 
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the 
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move 
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and 
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.  By Sunday, 
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions  
are possible in the watch area in Haiti on Saturday. 
 
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.
 
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.
 
Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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