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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021
 
...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Grenada and its dependencies
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 51.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h).  An even faster motion
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of
the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early 
Sunday Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba. 
 
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional 
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), 
mainly to the north of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over
Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5
inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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