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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021
 
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 43.7W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.
 
The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.
 
The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system.  Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to 
continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple 
of days.  On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over 
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on 
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday 
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the 
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on 
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO 
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of 
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday
across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including
Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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