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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
 
A  TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE
BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S
VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.
 
ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW
JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND 
NANTUCKET.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  83.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  83.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  83.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N  82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.6N  79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N  75.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N  70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N  57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  83.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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