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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF ARIPEKA...FLORIDA...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND...AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY
HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  83.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  80SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  83.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  83.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N  82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  95SE  20SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.3N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N  77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N  73.3W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N  68.0W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N  60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 58.0N  47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N  83.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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