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HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0300 UTC WED JUL 07 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND...GEORGIA...TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER 
INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING 
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
CHOKOLOSKEE...FLORIDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK...NORTH
CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN 
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE 
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING 
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING 
SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND 
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  83.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N  83.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  83.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N  83.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.4N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.9N  80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.4N  77.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.3N  73.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.8N  68.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 51.0N  54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N  83.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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