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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CORRECTED ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA
FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH
CAROLINA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  83.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  83.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  83.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N  83.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N  82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N  78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.4N  75.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N  71.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.5N  58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N  83.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
 
 
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