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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA 
BAY.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY
AND FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER 
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  81.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  81.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  81.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.1N  82.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N  83.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N  83.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.6N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N  69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  81.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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