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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
THE STORM SURGE WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA
CLARA...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 80.8W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 81.2W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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