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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN 
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. 
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA
CLARA...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  81.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  81.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  80.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N  82.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N  83.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N  83.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N  83.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N  82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N  79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N  72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N  61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N  81.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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