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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN 
EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER...FLORIDA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT
MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  79.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  79.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  79.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N  81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N  82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N  83.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N  83.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.1N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.8N  74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 42.0N  64.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  79.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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