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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0300 UTC MON JUL 05 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE 
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND LAS TUNAS AND THE TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, 
GRANMA, HOLGUIN, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, AND GUANTANAMO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS .
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS 
THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS 
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  79.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  79.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  78.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N  80.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N  82.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.1N  82.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N  83.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N  82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 36.0N  76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 41.0N  66.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  79.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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