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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  77.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  77.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  77.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N  79.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N  81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N  82.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N  83.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.9N  83.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.9N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N  69.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N  77.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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