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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY EASTWARD TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE 
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  76.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  76.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  76.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N  78.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.4N  81.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.7N  82.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N  82.8W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N  71.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N  76.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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