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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  75.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 105SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  75.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  75.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N  77.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N  79.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N  82.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N  82.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.8N  82.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.2N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 38.4N  72.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  75.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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