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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT
AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY
MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  75.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  75.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  74.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N  77.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N  79.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.1N  82.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N  82.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.7N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 37.7N  74.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  75.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
 
 
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