ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL 
STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  66.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  25 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  30SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  66.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  65.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N  69.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N  73.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N  76.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  30SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N  80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N  81.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N  82.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N  80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  66.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
 
 
NNNN