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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER 
WITH HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO 
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  58.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  24 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  58.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  57.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N  62.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N  67.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N  71.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N  75.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N  77.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N  79.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N  82.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N  82.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N  58.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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