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Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021
The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal
boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the
circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and
heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the
cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition
this afternoon. Buoy and surface observations indicate that the
cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning.
Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure
remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively.
Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating
northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded
within deep-layer southwesterly flow. After 48 hours, the system is
expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic
around day 3. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has
shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly.
Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa
completes its extratropical transition. After that time, gradual
weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the
system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days. The global
models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north
Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows
1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions
of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England
through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 41.0N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP