ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
 
Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images
indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina.
WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the
maximum winds are near 40 kt.  These highest winds are likely
occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast.
 
Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the
initial motion is about 040/17 kt.  A faster northeastward motion
is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes
entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada.
Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic
Canada during the next 24-48 hours.  The official track forecast
is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow
the multi-model consensus.
 
Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours
due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough.
Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global
models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal
cyclone.  Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows
the system becoming extratropical at that time.  This is also
reflected in the official forecast.


Key Messages:
 
1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding.  Heavy
rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could
lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this
afternoon or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday.
Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday 
night and Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 35.0N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 37.3N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/1200Z 40.6N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  10/0000Z 44.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1200Z 49.0N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  11/0000Z 53.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/1200Z 59.0N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN