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Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
 
Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is
maintaining its intensity.  However, these winds aren't close to
the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the 
eastern semicircle of the storm.  The current wind speed is set to 
40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, 
and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at 
least 40 kt.
 
Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of 
Elsa's circulation remains over land.  However by late Thursday, 
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number 
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough 
interaction or warm waters.  I'm getting some deja vu in this case 
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same 
models also over-intensifying that storm.  The GFS has been 
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of 
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that 
model's relatively weaker solution.  
 
The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a
little faster, about 14 kt.  Elsa should move northeastward at an
increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes
embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough.  No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast since guidance remains in good agreement.  Elsa is likely
to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical 
low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North 
Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive 
tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been 
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas.  Areas to the 
north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of 
South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding.  Heavy rainfall, from North 
Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and 
Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on 
Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible in the southern New England states 
and New York by Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 32.1N  82.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1200Z 34.1N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 37.1N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 40.4N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0000Z 44.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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