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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
 
Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface 
observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, 
having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. 
Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate 
values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent 
surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying 
just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured 
reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, 
the intensity has been increased to 50 kt. 
 
The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past 
three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous 
track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving 
north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a 
deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to 
central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge 
over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then 
north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late 
Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a 
mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern 
United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly 
eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad 
east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.
 
Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, 
with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly 
reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida 
peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a 
small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has 
been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a 
condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in 
about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains 
similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 
kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC 
forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will 
be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the 
intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning 
is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the 
cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity 
forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight 
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa 
approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast 
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding 
possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.  Mid to late 
week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and 
southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban 
flooding.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and  the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 23.5N  82.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 24.9N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 26.9N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 31.6N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  08/1200Z 34.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/0000Z 36.9N  76.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0000Z 43.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/0000Z 50.5N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Nov-2021 12:09:09 UTC