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Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
 
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while
it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning.  Based on 
SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held 
at 55 kt for this advisory.  A center dropsonde from the plane 
measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central 
pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since 
yesterday.   Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that 
there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm 
continues to have some vertical alignment issues.  Satellite imagery 
continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern 
portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western 
edge of the main cloud mass.
 
Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion 
estimate of 310/12 kt.  Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical 
cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest 
North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of 
Mexico.  In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is 
forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the 
eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should 
lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia.

Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast 
has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids, 
HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance.  The GFS model 
track lies a little east of the latest NHC track.

Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba 
today.  Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be 
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad 
upper-level trough over the Gulf.  The official intensity forecast 
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba.  As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated 
flash, urban, and minor river flooding.  Mid to late week, heavy 
rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result 
in isolated flash and urban flooding.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba
today. 
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through 
Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.  A 
Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for 
portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend.
 
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge
impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and
Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 21.5N  81.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 23.2N  82.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 25.0N  83.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 27.0N  83.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 29.3N  83.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 31.5N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  08/1200Z 33.7N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z 38.5N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  10/1200Z 44.5N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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