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Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number  10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Corrected motion heading in second paragraph. 

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa 
has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a 
combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and 
dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt.  The 
aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat 
disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned 
with with the surface center.  The former issue is likely due to 
the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of 
westerly shear.
 
The initial motion now is 280/26.  There is again little change to 
the forecast track or the forecast guidance.  The guidance is in 
good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the 
south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed 
by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed 
through 48 h.  After that time, Elsa should gradually turn 
northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough 
over the eastern United States.  This motion should take the 
cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the 
nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern 
United States by the end of the period.  The track guidance is a 
little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread 
in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low 
confidence.

The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance 
are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the 
next several days.  The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of 
northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear 
after 60 h.  In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably 
weaker storm than its last several runs.  The intensity forecast 
thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h, 
although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more 
during that time.  After that, land interaction and shear are 
likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of 
Mexico.  However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a 
Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity 
forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the 
guidance.
 
It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles 
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.  Given the 
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well 
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on 
the exact forecast points.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected 
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican 
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 

2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and 
southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain 
bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern 
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered 
flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy 
rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding 
and mudslides are possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in 
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane 
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm 
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall 
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward 
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast 
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential 
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. 
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and 
updates to the forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 14.2N  63.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 15.4N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.0N  71.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.3N  74.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.9N  77.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0600Z 21.4N  79.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  05/1800Z 22.9N  81.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/1800Z 26.5N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1800Z 31.6N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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