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Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021
 
Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what 
is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt 
winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt 
surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston 
radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which 
also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft 
dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on 
these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to 
maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with 
landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely 
occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone 
should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and 
eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected 
over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early 
Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of 
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track 
models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX.
 
No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes 
landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall,  
with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. 
The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS 
statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity 
consensus models IVCN and HCCA.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina
and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast
Alabama.  Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the
southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect
portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells 
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 32.3N  80.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 33.2N  82.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 34.3N  85.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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