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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
700 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021
 
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.2 North, longitude 92.3 West.  The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected for the next day or so.  On the forecast
track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late
Friday or early Saturday.  A northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday.
 
A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form
over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 
inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL:  The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  Rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are
possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from
the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.
This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream
flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with
new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday
afternoon across coastal Louisiana.  This threat should expand
northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and
southwest Alabama on Saturday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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