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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
2100 UTC THU JUN 17 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA...TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  92.4W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N  92.4W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  92.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N  92.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 26.5N  92.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N  92.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.0N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N  92.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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