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Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021
 
Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of 
Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp 
south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In 
addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the 
cyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt 
at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been 
increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification 
of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB.
 
The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to 
continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight 
ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is 
moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the 
cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward 
speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The 
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, 
and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance 
suite.
 
Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in 
strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over 
sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead 
of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical 
extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition 
could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity 
consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 37.5N  72.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  67.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 42.8N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 46.0N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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