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Tropical Depression CLAUDETTE (Text)


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Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and 
northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself 
is not very well defined.  Coastal surface observations indicate 
that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt.  Some 
additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is 
expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the 
Atlantic on Monday.  A little more intensification could occur 
while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream 
during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast.  
Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the 
global models suggest that the system will lose tropical 
characteristics, or even open up into a trough.

Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current 
motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt.  On the projected 
track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow.  
The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern 
United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east-
northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours.  The 
official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to 
the model consensus TVCN.

No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United 
States coasts are required at this time.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday 
morning.  Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 
possible across these areas.

2.  A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across 
parts of the coastal Carolinas.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 34.7N  80.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 35.9N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0000Z 38.1N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  22/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 44.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/1200Z 47.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Oct-2021 12:09:06 UTC