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Tropical Depression CLAUDETTE (Text)


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Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the 
center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning.  
Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, 
loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South 
Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern 
Georgia and northern Florida.  There have been a few wind reports of 
20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the 
past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some 
elevated towers.  The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but 
the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring 
mainly over water. 

Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an 
initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt.  There has been no change to 
the track forecast reasoning.  Claudette should continue to 
accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough 
moving into the central United States.  The center of the cyclone 
should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then 
pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and 
Monday night.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement and 
the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official 
foreast.  

As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern 
United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase 
along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to 
regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning.  Additional 
re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the 
cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.  After that 
time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an 
extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical 
cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday 
morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various 
intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global 
models.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North 
Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through 
Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are 
possible across these areas. 

2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and 
the Carolinas.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 33.8N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.4N  81.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1200Z 35.8N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/0000Z 38.0N  71.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  22/1200Z 41.1N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 44.3N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Oct-2021 12:09:06 UTC