Tropical Depression CLAUDETTE (Text)

Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has 
weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become 
more distinct in the southeastern quadrant.  Surface observations 
continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and 
these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the 
south of the center.  

Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt.  The system 
should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as 
it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States, 
and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast 
by midday Monday.  Claudette should then move even faster to the 
northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to 
stronger steering flow.  Guidance remains in very good agreement 
through that time, and little change was made to the previous 
forecast.  The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of 
the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova 
Scotia.  However, a stronger system would argue for something that 
remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering 
the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on 
the south side of the guidance.

Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of 
Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment 
late today.  The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by 
Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is 
low.  The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement 
now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system 
becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks 
with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean. 
Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of 
the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours.  The 
new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, 
close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama,
and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through 
Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in 
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical 
Storm Watch is in effect.
INIT  20/0900Z 33.3N  85.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  20/1800Z 33.8N  83.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0600Z 34.7N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1800Z 36.5N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  22/0600Z 39.3N  69.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 42.7N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/0600Z 46.5N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Oct-2021 12:09:06 UTC