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Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has 
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be 
considered a tropical storm.  While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette.  The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar.  These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.
 
Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt.  The storm
should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day
or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.  
The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the 
reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system 
regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 
72 hours.  Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one 
and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western 
Atlantic Ocean.  The new intensity forecast is more conservative 
than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. 
 Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.
 
Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.  Impacts
along the northern Gulf coast will continue.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and 
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and 
Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the 
afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, 
will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, 
with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions 
of the Southeast.  
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.  These
winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 29.6N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/1800Z 30.9N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0600Z 32.2N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1800Z 33.3N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  21/0600Z 34.2N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  21/1800Z 35.8N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  22/0600Z 38.5N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 96H  23/0600Z 47.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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