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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022021
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021
 
Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of 
the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of 
shear.  However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it 
has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind 
of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a 
tropical storm.  None of the conventional intensity estimates, 
however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer 
data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the 
initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from 
the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time 
over marginally warm water to intensify.  Afterwards, the cyclone 
should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical 
low, and dissipate near Newfoundland.  This forecast is somewhat 
higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that 
I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I 
decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to 
doing.
 
The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little 
slower than before.  Model guidance is in excellent agreement on 
large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to 
accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next 
day or two.  The northeastward track is forecast to continue until 
the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is 
absorbed by a larger extratropical low.  The model guidance has 
shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track 
prediction is shifted in that direction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 35.5N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 37.5N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 40.9N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 45.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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