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Tropical Depression ANA (Text)


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Tropical Depression Ana Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012021
500 PM AST Sun May 23 2021
 
Other than brief puff of convection late this morning, tiny Ana has 
been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours. ASCAT 
overpass data from this morning indicated that the peak winds had 
deceased to 35 kt. Due to the lack of convection since that time, 
it is reasonable to assume that the vortex has spun down a bit, and 
therefore the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 30 kt. 

Ana is over cool waters and surrounded by very dry air in the 
mid-troposphere. The brief convection that did occur today was 
quickly stripped away, indicating that the anticipated increase in 
shear has begun. Satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of 
Ana is approaching a strong subtropical upper-level jet just to its 
east, which is expected to produce even stronger shear over the 
cyclone. These conditions should prevent further convection, if any, 
from surviving, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a 
remnant low by tonight. What is left of Ana's low-level circulation 
should open into a trough on Monday as it is absorbed by a large 
baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest.

The depression continues to accelerate northeastward, and the 
forward motion is now northeastward at 15 kt. An accelerating 
northwestward motion is anticipated until dissipation as Ana 
gets caught up in increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 37.5N  57.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 39.4N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Oct-2021 12:09:05 UTC