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Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021
500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021
While Ana continues to produce convection near the center, the
amount of convection has decreased during the past several hours.
In addition, earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB suggest the cyclone has weakened.
The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt.
A combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs
should cause Ana to gradually weaken, and most of the global models
now show the system decaying to a trough in about 36 h. The new
intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening with dissipation
just after that time, and it is possible that Ana could dissipate
earlier than currently forecast.
Ana made a small counter-clockwise loop during the past few hours,
and the initial motion is now 050/4. A continued northeastward
motion at an increasing forward speed, due to the southwesterly
flow associated with a developing mid-latitude cyclone to the north
and northwest, is expected until the cyclone dissipates.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 34.5N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH