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Tropical Depression Polo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020
Occasional bursts of deep convection have been developing to the
east and northeast of Polo's center since yesterday evening, but
none have lasted for more than about an hour or two. ASCAT-C data
received after the scatterometer pass noted in the previous advisory
did not explicitly show tropical-storm-force winds, suggesting that
Polo continues to weaken, and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB are 2.0. For these reasons, Polo is now assumed to be
a 30-kt tropical depression. Polo has not maintained enough
organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone for the
last 12 to 15 hours, and if sustained convection does not redevelop
soon, the system will likely be declared a remnant low later this
afternoon. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening due to
westerly shear, only marginally warm waters, and dry air, and it is
expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.
Polo is being steered westward (275/10 kt) to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge. Once Polo becomes a remnant low, the shallow
circulation should take on a south-of-due-west motion in about 24
hours, continuing that trajectory until it dissipates. This
pattern is shown by nearly all the reliable track models, and the
NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 17.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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