ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020
 
Polo has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more 
than 6 hours. However, a narrow band of convection with cloud tops 
to -60 to -70 deg C has recently developed in the northeastern 
quadrant 30-40 nmi from the center, in the same location where a 
0439Z partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated a few surface 
wind vectors of 34-35 kt. Therefore, Polo is being maintained as a 
tropical storm with an intensity of 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is now 280/10 kt.  A low-/mid-level 
ridge situated to the north of Polo should steer the small cyclone 
generally westward until it dissipates in a day or two. The new NHC 
track forecast is similar to but a tad south of the previous 
advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus 
models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Over the next two days, Polo is forecast to move into a less 
favorable environment consisting of moderate-to-strong westerly 
shear, a drier and more stable air mass, and sea-surface 
temperatures less than 26 deg C. As a result, convection should 
steadily weaken, causing Polo to gradually spin down and become a 
remnant low by this afternoon or tonight, and dissipate by 60 hours, 
if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus 
models IVCN and HCCA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 17.1N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN