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Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo 
has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to 
the east of the exposed low-level center.  The initial intensity 
is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates.  Polo is moving into an 
environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and 
decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should 
gradually weaken during the next 48 h.  The new intensity forecast 
has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for 
Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h.

The initial motion is 285/11.  A low-level ridge to the north of 
the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it 
dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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