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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
 
Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over
the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding
the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to
decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has
begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.
 
As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind 
shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as 
diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep 
central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under 
Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and 
mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the 
next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates 
Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant 
low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep 
convection does not redevelop soon.
 
The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a
due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is
now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level
northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to
southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track
shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the
cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near
the track guidance consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 
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