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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A
well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible
satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection.
Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT
passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band
north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling,
and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the
initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.
Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt.
The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The
storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated
between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level
trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely
generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid
level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h,
resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then
west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement
on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys
becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the
official forecast track.
Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it
is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the
southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35
kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very
dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any
remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow
remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW